The 2001 Meteor Storm Prediction

The Lyytinen model predicts that the meteor stream released in 1866 will encounter the Earth in November 2001, visible over the Western Pacific region. The predicted peak rate is slightly stronger than what was observed in 1999. It is unusual for strong storms to occur four years after the passage of the parent comet. However, now that we understand better how to predict these events, we see that others like this have occurred before in history, but often under unfavorable viewing conditions. For example, this predicted 2001 storm would not normally have been noticed if it had not been predicted because it occurs over no large land mass or population center.

In 2001, the Moon will be just three days past new, and will be below the horizon at the time of the storm. In 2001, no fewer than five streams will pass close to the Earth, so that weak storms may persist for several hours before the predicted strong one arrives.

For our expedition, our chosen site is Guam Island, the southernmost in the Mariana chain. At Guam, the meteor radiant will pass overhead. The island optimizes clear sky probabilities and accessibility, with a beautiful tropical island setting.