<i>Originally posted by tvanflandern</i>
<br />Here is a preliminary report of early results from observing the predicted Perseids outburst, showing good agreement with the predictions.
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I M O S H O W E R C I R C U L A R
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The 2004 Perseids, 2nd analysis
As an update of the first preliminary analysis of the 2004 Perseids based on visual observations, this is a refined graph with almost 500 observing periods.
The peak time of the 1-revolution dust trail predicted by Lyytinen can be narrowed down to the period 20:45 UT to 21:10 UT. This encloses the predicted time of 20:54 UT on August 11. A plateau- like maximum of 20-25 minutes duration has not changed anymore after adding the last 100 observing periods. The activity level was ZHR=170.
The traditional maximum is not yet well covered.
The dip of ZHR=75 may not be significant since systematical errors may exceed the given statistical error greatly (very small number of observers).
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Rainer Arlt, 2004 August 13, 13h UT
