Chelyabinsk meteor, DA14, and EPH

www.infowars.com/russian-meteor-linked-to-da14-asteroid/


<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Professor Ian Crawford of Birkbeck University told Sky News that, it was too early to tell if this incident was connected to the asteroid passing by the earth tonight, but added that if meteorites were traveling with the asteroid, they would be several hours ahead of it.

Curtin University asteroid expert Phil Bland told an Australian website, Is it connected to the flyby? A lot of folks would say no. Personally, Ive always kind of liked the idea that there are streams of asteroid debris so you can have smaller stuff that precede and trail a bigger object. It seems like an awful big coincidence if its not connected.<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

My comment:

If the Earth passed through the centerline of the asteroid's orbit, then the meteor seems most likely related to the asteroid, and the EPH would be verified yet again. It would demonstrate again the EPH predicted "equivalence" (common origin) of asteroids and comets. This meteor would thus be no different from any meteor shower that is the result of Earth passing through a comet's orbit.

We need someone who has good working knowledge of celestial mechanics. Anyone here please?

Having reviewed some of my readings in the EPH, it seems we just need to establish whether or not the orbit of DA14 grazed or intersected with the Chelyabinsk area in the hours prior to the asteroid's passage. The meteor needs simply to be in the same orbit as the asteroid, for this event to be a confirmation of Tom van Flandern's Exploded Planet Hypothesis.

The EPH describes an event which "gave birth" to asteroids and comets in the solar system. Thus, having given them a common origin, van Flandern predicted similarities between asteroids and comets, that the mainstream could/would not countenance for many years. One such was the possibility of atmospheres and outgassing on asteroids. Van Flandern went on to predict that asteroids and comets would have satellites (this has now been abundantly observed in asteroid fly-bys), and that asteroids might have their satellites "land" on their surfaces, after orbital decay (this prediction was verified with observations of Eros).

Now if the current event shows that asteroid orbits are littered with debris, much like the cometary orbits are (which cause the perennial meteor showers, like the Leonids, Perseids, etc.), this would be yet another characteristic that links comets to asteroids, that points to their common origin.

I have no working knowledge of celestial mechanics. So, although I've found tables showing the orbital elements of DA14, I cannot figure out from them, if the orbit at any point in time (yesterday) passed through the earth. But I have found one interesting paper online that seems to suggest it did (also includes numerous tables of orbital elements).

mnras.oxfordjournals.org/content/427/2/1175.full

In section 7., it states:

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote">Possible impact orbits, according to Sitarski (2006), are orbits with orbital elements of the dangerous object at the present date (initial orbital elements) and seven days before the possible impact (close orbital elements). [bold]As this orbit intersects the Earth,[/bold] having the precise orbital elements allows us easily to compute the region of possible impact and the exact moment of possible collision (see the next section). <hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">

It is not clear to me from reading this section, if the orbit of DA14 intersects the Earth generally, or is predicted to do so in 2026. I am going to try to reach the author for more information.

thanks

Boris

www.guardian.co.uk/science/video/2013/fe...roid-earth-animation

This link shows a nice lengthy animation of the asteroid flyby.

Asteroid approaches from the South. I wish the line of the orbit was illustrated also, which would settle the question of the possible meteor/asteroid relationship. I can imagine the orbit preceding the asteroid, grazing through the surface of the earth in the hours before closest approach - by which time the earth is no longer being grazed or pierced by the line of the orbit, of course.

Confounded! This page shows a meteor trajectory going from West to East:

www.space.com/19834-russian-meteor-crash...ectory-animated.html

THis meteor trajectory seems unlikely to have come about from an atmospheric capture of debris in the asteroid orbit.

(The "orbit" of the asteroid shown in this animation I think shows the motion/path of the asteroid relative to Earth. That does not rule out that the line of the orbit might have intersected the earth in the hours prior to closest approach. That is still an open question for me.)

Alright, I think I'm going to lay this to rest for now.

Cheers to all.

Boris

Interesting stuff, Boris. Thanks.

We are still looking for someone to fill Tom's shoes. But such people are few and far between.

LB