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2000/03/15: Meta Research associate Esko Lyytinen of Finland made the
only prediction of the Leonid meteor storm in November, 1999 that was correct
for both the time and maximum rate of the storm (to within 50%). He used the exploded planet
hypothesis's implied model for the nature of comets (i.e., orbiting debris
clouds) as a basis for the prediction. That same technique predicted strong
showers in 2000 and
meteor storms in November 2001 and 2002, subsequently confirmed. Eclipse Edge
Expeditions mounted expeditions to Cyprus in 1999, Guam in 2001, and North
Carolina in 2002 to observe these storm events.
Turning the same predictive technique on the annual Perseids meteor showers of
August, Lyytinen has discovered that the meteor streams associated with that
comet will cross the Earth's orbit for the first time under conditions that
might produce a storm or strong shower in 2004. If he is correct, encounters
with the Perseids meteor streams will increase in intensity in the future, and
may reach full
storm levels by the time of the 2028 encounter. Here is Lyytinen's
Preliminary Announcement,
which you can read about here well before it appears in other astronomy news
media.
Update on 2004/05/26: The latest prediction model for the 2004 outburst is now
published in WGN. A brief summary has been added to the
Preliminary Announcement.
Results posted 2004/08/14: A graph of early results for the 2004 outburst and
enhanced annual shower activity has been added to the end of the
Preliminary Announcement.
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